Humanoid Robot Market Soars, Goldman Sachs Forecast Up Sixfold; China Security Concerns Emerge

Goldman Sachs raised its 2035 humanoid robot market forecast sixfold, from $6 billion to $38 billion, driven by AI advancements and cost reductions. The market is shifting to the validation phase, but security concerns regarding Chinese manufacturers like Unitree Robotics are also growing.

Thu Jun 04 2026

Humanoid Robot Market Projected for Explosive Growth

Goldman Sachs updated its January 2024 report, increasing its 2035 humanoid robot market forecast sixfold, from $6 billion to $38 billion (approximately 5.7 trillion JPY). This surge is attributed to rapid advancements in AI and decreasing manufacturing costs, signaling the market's transition from the 'prediction' phase to the 'validation' phase. Wall Street views humanoid robots as a key segment of 'physical AI' and one of the 'biggest market opportunities in the AI revolution.' SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son also stated that 'humanoid and industrial robotics centered on physical AI' will be the domain that produces the next trillion-dollar companies.

Cost Reduction Through Simulation Learning and Commercialization Acceleration

This market growth is underpinned by technological advancements and cost reductions. Specifically, 'end-to-end AI training,' where models learn autonomously without human programming, is cited as a significant technical breakthrough. Companies like Agility Robotics, Figure AI, and NVIDIA are converging on 'sim-to-real transfer' methods, training robot actions in physical simulators before deploying them to real machines without additional adjustments, thereby reducing costs from $150,000 to the $40,000 range. Agility Robotics's Digit has handled over 100,000 totes at GXO Logistics facilities and secured a Robotics-as-a-Service (RaaS) contract with Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada, expanding commercial applications. Boston Dynamics's Atlas and Figure AI's Figure 02 are also being deployed in large-scale production lines, performing actual tasks, with demand even exceeding supply capacity.

Chinese Companies Lead Market Amid Security Concerns

Meanwhile, Unitree Robotics from China, a global leader in shipments, faces ongoing security concerns from the U.S. Congress and researchers. The obligation to provide information under Chinese law is the basis for these worries, posing a significant risk factor that companies and research institutions cannot ignore when considering the adoption of Chinese-made humanoid robots.

*Source: 財経新聞 (2026-06-04)*

Tags: #robot #ai #physical-ai #goldman-sachs #security