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Major oil traders estimate a 1 billion barrel oil supply deficit due to the Iran war's impact on Strait of Hormuz passage, marking it as the largest disruption in 40 years.

Iran War Triggers Oil Market Supply Shortfall

Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol Group, the world's largest independent oil trader, stated that the Iran war has led to a 1 billion barrel supply deficit in the oil market due to disruptions in transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Hardy described this as the largest supply disruption in the energy market during his 40-year career in oil trading, noting that it is larger and more prolonged than the disruption caused by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

Lingering Effects Despite Short-Term Peace Deals

Representatives of major oil trading companies, attending the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, warned that even if a short-term peace agreement is reached between Iran and the U.S., it would take several months for the oil market to rebalance. They emphasized that even with the resumption of navigation through the strait, the subsequent effects would persist for months, indicating that uncertainty in the oil market is unlikely to dissipate soon.

*Source: 經濟日報 (2026-04-22)*

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