Iran War Intensifies US Economic 'K-Shape Polarization'

The war in the Middle East is exacerbating the 'K-shape polarization' of the US economy, with the stock market rising while lower-income households struggle with inflation.

Mon Jun 01 2026

Middle East War Deepens Economic Polarization

The war in the Middle East is intensifying the 'K-shape polarization' of the US economy. While upper-income households with assets like stocks are benefiting from the stock market rally, middle and lower-income households are reducing consumption due to the burden of high prices. CNBC pointed out on May 30 that the end of the Iran War could mark the beginning of a new era of inequality, emphasizing that the divide between beneficiaries and marginalized groups of the AI-driven stock market boom is a more realistic concern.

Discrepancy Between Stock Market and Real Economy

The stock market quickly recovered from the shock of the war. The S&P 500 index, which fell 8% immediately after the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February, rebounded 19% from late March, up 10.7% year-to-date. At this rate, it is expected to achieve double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive year. However, the atmosphere in the real economy is distinctly different. According to the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis, real disposable income, an indicator of purchasing power, decreased by 0.2% in March and an additional 0.5% in April, with the personal savings rate shrinking to 2.6%, indicating that savings are being used to cover increased costs due to high oil prices.

Widening Consumption Gap by Income Class

Analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that from February to April, low-income households nationwide reduced real gasoline expenditure by 3.2%, while high-income households increased it by 0.4%. The New York Fed stated that, similar to retail spending, real net worth has shown a K-shape pattern since 2023, with the increase in net worth for high-income groups attributed to rising financial asset values. This suggests a structure where stock market gains widen the wealth gap, which in turn leads to disparities in consumption capacity.

*Source: ｄメニューニュース (2026-06-01)*

Tags: #IranWar #USEconomy #Polarization #StockMarket #HighOilPrices