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Yardeni Research President: Iran War's Market Impact Limited, US Economy Shows Resilience
Iran War: Market Considers Conflict 'Over' for Now
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, noted that despite the Iran War being in its seventh week, financial markets appear to be looking past the conflict, treating it as if it's already over. Historically, geopolitical crises have often presented significant buying opportunities for the S&P 500. Investors seem to conclude that the war will eventually end, contributing to a sense of market stability. However, Yardeni acknowledged that much depends on how the Iranian regime responds to negotiations, indicating potential for shifts in this perception.
US Economy Demonstrates Remarkable Resilience
Yardeni highlighted the US economy's remarkable resilience, having navigated through numerous stress tests since the beginning of the decade. These challenges include the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, and the mini-banking crisis in 2023. Despite these headwinds, real GDP has reached an all-time record high. Yardeni suggested that recent slowdowns in the fourth and first quarters might be weather-related, anticipating a strong spring. He also noted that banks are still lending, and CEOs like Jamie Dimon have indicated that consumers are in good shape, contrary to more alarmist outlooks.
Tech Stocks and Treasury Yield Outlook
Regarding the tech sector, Yardeni observed that AI stocks are leading the way, attributing this to investors 'buying the dip' after recent corrections. He expects the Magnificent 7 to continue outperforming the rest of the market. While acknowledging the potential for a bubble-like aspect, he believes AI is here to stay, with major companies likely to acquire smaller ones or see them fail. For Treasury yields, Yardeni projects the 10-year yield will trade between 4.25% and 4.75%, not returning to 5%. Despite some bearish factors, the US bond market remains a safe haven, especially compared to rising yields in Japan and some European countries. The US dollar is expected to remain stable, as foreigners continue to invest heavily in US equities and debt.
*Source: YouTube: Bloomberg (2026-04-16)*
