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As the 2026 Indian state election counting day approaches, West Bengal faces a predicted close contest between TMC and BJP. Kerala is expected to see a shift in power towards the UDF, while Tamil Nadu's DMK alliance is favored but with potential for TVK disruption. Assam is poised for political continuity.

Key Battleground States and Predictions

As the counting of votes approaches, all eyes are on West Bengal amid high drama and reports of a highly competitive and divided picture in the 2026 elections, with most surveys predicting a neck-and-neck battle between TMC and BJP. Tamil Nadu promises a thriller, with most agencies projecting the DMK-led alliance to retain power, although some suggest a major disruption by TVK, emerging strongly at about 98 to 120 seats.

Kerala: A Possible Shift in Power

Kerala exit polls strongly predict a comeback for the Congress-led UDF, projecting 72 to 90 seats. This comes after the historic break in 2021 when the Left Democratic Front (LDF) returned to power for a second consecutive term, defying Kerala's long-standing trend of alternating governments. However, in 2026, that pattern may be back in play. The UDF is banking on anti-incumbency, a sharper opposition campaign, and regained minority support.

Incumbent Challenges and Assam's Outlook

At the same time, the LDF is facing questions over unemployment, welfare delivery gaps, and governance concerns. Meanwhile, in Assam, exit polls predict a decisive victory for the BJP, projecting 82 to 100 seats in the 126-member assembly, securing a hat-trick for the ruling alliance. As the latest contest tightens, the big question is whether Kerala is heading back to revolving door politics.

*Source: YouTube: NDTV (2026-05-03)*

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