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Experts Warn Against Iran War Misinterpretation, Market Optimism Premature
Market Optimism and Expert Warnings
As the truce between the United States and Iran approaches its expiration, the market remains optimistic. On the 21st, the KOSPI index rose 2.72% to 6388.47, reaching an all-time high, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics stocks also seeing significant gains. International oil prices also showed a downward trend, reflecting hopes for an end to the conflict. However, CNBC cited expert analysis, stating that "investors are misinterpreting the unfolding situation of the Iran war." Experts point out that the situation could unfold differently from the tariff war or the Russia-Ukraine war.
Complexity and Potential Risks of the Iran Situation
Experts emphasize that destroyed infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz blockade cannot be immediately normalized by a mere negotiation settlement. Rystad Energy estimates that the cost of rebuilding damaged energy infrastructure could reach up to $58 billion, and it may take up to two years to restore production. Claudio Irigoen, an economist at Bank of America (BofA), warned, "Even if the US administration signals de-escalation, de-escalation in war is not a unilateral decision." He suggested that the market might be underestimating this risk. Jim Reid, Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank, cited the example of the S&P 500 index, which surged by over 10% in early 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war but then fell 19% by year-end, recording its worst performance since 2008. This serves as a warning that premature optimism could lead to disappointment.
*Source: Yahoo!ニュース (2026-04-22)*
