Original Source
Iran War Escalates with Energy Attacks, Middle East Nears Regional Conflict
Iran War Escalation and Energy Facility Attacks
The South China Morning Post reported that three weeks into the Iran War, escalating attacks on energy facilities have pushed the Middle East to the verge of a full-scale regional war. Following Israel's attack on the South Pars gas field, Iran retaliated by striking Qatar's gas processing facilities and, for the first time, a major refinery in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. This demonstrates Iran's capability to extend its blockade from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Currently, Israel has launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon due to the involvement of Hezbollah, while pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are clashing with U.S. forces. Syria is massing troops at its border to prevent being caught in Israeli operations and is using diplomatic channels to prevent Iraqi militia attacks on its territory.
Iran's Strategy and Potential U.S. Intervention
Katzman, a senior fellow at the Soufan Center in New York, believes that despite Iran's strategic success in creating chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely to completely blockade the Red Sea with the help of the Houthi rebels to avoid prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to order a ground invasion. Katzman noted that a ground war would be a "nightmare" for Iran, as its military is ill-trained and poorly equipped, making it difficult to mass forces under U.S. and Israeli air superiority. Tehran is aware of its limited ability to prevent U.S. forces from occupying ports and islands and is unwilling to provoke lightly, although creating new fronts with the Houthis remains a strategic option.
Notably, the situation in the Middle East has not yet completely collapsed, mainly because Gulf states have maintained restraint despite drone and missile attacks. However, with energy infrastructure being paralyzed, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE face strong pressure from the U.S. and domestically to retaliate. UAE's diplomatic adviser, Gargash, confirmed consultations with Washington to ensure smooth trade, while Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal warned Tehran against severely misjudging the situation, emphasizing Saudi Arabia's and its partners' strength and finite patience, indicating a potential counterattack at any time.
*Source: 自由時報 (2026-03-21)*
