Original Source
South Korea's Economic Growth Forecasts Lowered Amid Prolonged Middle East Crisis
Middle East Risks Pressure South Korean Economic Growth
Expectations for South Korea's economic growth to reach the 2% range, driven by a recovery in the semiconductor industry, are being shaken by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Surging international oil prices and a weakening won are collectively increasing downward pressure on the growth trajectory. Warnings suggest that if the Middle East situation prolongs, the combination of rising energy prices and trade contraction could push the growth rate down to 0%.
Overseas Investment Banks Lower Forecasts
According to the financial investment industry, major overseas investment banks (IBs) are successively lowering their forecasts for South Korea's economic growth rate, reflecting the recent rise in oil prices and currency instability due to heightened Middle East tensions. Goldman Sachs also lowered its growth outlook for Asian countries, including South Korea, by 0.3-0.5 percentage points, citing surging oil prices and strait risks. Initially, foreign IBs such as Citi, Nomura, UBS, and Barclays had anticipated growth rates around 2%, but external variables have now constrained these previous outlooks.
*Source: v.daum.net (2026-03-23)*
