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Iran War Uncertainty Amid Stock Market Adjustment
Iran War Uncertainty Weighs on Market
With the Iran War now in its third week, market attention is keenly focused on the timing of its resolution. The stock market experienced a sharp correction following the war's outbreak. This week saw major events, including the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, and the U.S.-Japan Summit. While this period would typically see the market seeking a bottom and potential rebound, the persistent uncertainty surrounding the Iran War continues to fuel investor anxiety.
Technical Indicators Hint at Adjustment End, But Caution Remains
The Nikkei Average dropped to 51,407 yen on March 9, reaching its 26-week moving average. Similarly, the NY Dow and Nasdaq Composite Index have adjusted to their 200-day moving averages. With the RCI (Rank Correlation Index) for major U.S. and Japanese indices clustered in the bottom range, technical signs suggest that the adjustment phase may be nearing an end. However, U.S. President Donald Trump's fluctuating statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz continue to unsettle the market. Furthermore, oil prices remain elevated, and the exchange rate hovers around 159 yen to the dollar, indicating ongoing instability.
Market Outlook and Key Support Levels
The Nikkei Average rebounded significantly by 1,539 yen on March 18, but it still remains below its 25-day moving average (56,119 yen), suggesting it may be merely a technical rebound. If the 25-day line is decisively reclaimed, a revival of the upward trend for the new fiscal year in April could be anticipated. However, if the 25-day line is not breached and weakness persists, the 26-week moving average will be a crucial support level to monitor. Similarly, vigilance is warranted against a scenario where the NY Dow or Nasdaq definitively break below their 200-day lines.
*Source: かぶたん (2026-03-21)*
