US-Iran War Drags On, China Analyzes 'US Limitations'

As the US-Iran war enters a stalemate, China is analyzing it as evidence of US strategic limitations and its inability to counter asymmetric tactics, using it to simulate potential US-China conflicts.

Tue Apr 28 2026

Stalemate in US-Iran War and China's Observations

The war between the United States-Israel and Iran has entered its second month, and despite overwhelming US military power, it has unexpectedly fallen into a stalemate. While the US has deployed massive forces across the Middle East to pressure Iran, Iran, having lost its Supreme Leader and with key military facilities destroyed, is showing reluctance to negotiate. China views this situation as virtually the first full-scale war since President Xi Jinping's re-election and the intensification of strategic competition with the US, closely analyzing US warfighting capabilities and response methods.

China's Analysis of 'US Limitations' and Strategic Utilization

China is focusing on the US's failure to achieve anticipated results despite its overwhelming military strength. In particular, it is closely analyzing the inability of the US, which employs artificial intelligence (AI)-powered advanced weapons, to effectively counter Iran's asymmetric tactics utilizing low-cost drones and the geopolitical advantages of the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese media cover cases where Iran's low-cost drones neutralize expensive US interception systems, using them as simulations for potential US-China conflicts in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. Furthermore, the inconsistent strategy and confusing messages from the US leadership, led by President Donald Trump, are perceived as limitations of the American democratic system and are likely to be considered weaknesses in China's long-term strategic planning.

Changes in US-China Relations and Implications for the Korean Peninsula

China is most concerned about the depletion of US national power and the decline of global leadership revealed in this war. It assesses that the US, unlike in the past, lacks the software to properly control its hardware, and observes that forced demands for participation from allies are creating cracks in the US-led security bloc. While the US is preoccupied in the Middle East, China is emphasizing the stability of its own 'alternative order' and extending its influence to the Global South as well as Europe and East Asia. Such changes in China's judgment could impact the Korean Peninsula, raising the possibility that China might intensify military actions in the West Sea or Taiwan Strait and pressure South Korea for political concessions if the ROK-US alliance weakens.

*Source: Yahoo!ニュース (2026-04-28)*

Tags: #US-Iran War #China #International Relations #US-China Relations #Korean Peninsula