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Trump's Miscalculation on Iran and the Middle East's New Upheaval
Trump's Misjudgment on Iran and the Aftermath of the Supreme Leader's Assassination
U.S. President Donald Trump urged a large-scale uprising in Iran, attempted to directly name Iran's next leader, and claimed that Iran was being 'hit like hell'. However, these remarks are criticized as being detached from reality. Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, thousands of Iranians instead took to the streets to mourn and vow revenge, an act seen as setting a new direction for the Islamic Republic and the Iranian Revolution.
Under Khamenei's leadership, Iran had adopted a pragmatic approach for years. While internally rigid, it refrained from actions such as attacking neighboring countries or closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and gas shipments pass. Even after a series of recent incidents, including the 2019 drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil fields, the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and the killing of military commanders by Israel, Iran had endeavored to avoid escalation.
Iran's Hardline Response and the Global Energy Crisis
However, Khamenei's assassination completely altered Iran's strategy. Within two weeks, Iran nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz, severely curtailing oil and gas production in the Gulf region. This triggered a global energy crisis several times larger than the 1973 oil shock. Furthermore, Iran severely damaged the U.S.'s $1.1 billion early warning radar system in Qatar, disrupting the operation of THAAD and Patriot missile defense systems. The U.S. even found itself in a situation where it had to reorganize missile defense facilities in allied South Korea. Gulf nations have gone so far as to hire private foreign military experts for their maritime security.
Ali Larijani, Iran's wartime leader, declared after Khamenei's death, "We will burn their hearts and make the Zionist criminals and impudent Americans regret," signaling a hardline stance. The designation of Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, as successor is interpreted as the Iranian regime sending a message to President Trump that it will no longer yield to threats. Mojtaba has deep ties with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and is a fundamentalist supporter of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This suggests that Iran may engage in more unpredictable actions in the future.
Trump's Dilemma and the Future of the Middle East War
Within Iran, patriotic sentiment and anger over attacks by the U.S. and Israel are further galvanizing support for the regime. Even Abdolkarim Soroush, a prominent exiled Iranian philosopher, urged the Iranian military to fight with faith and courage and for the people to support them. As Iran's survival strategy proves effective, President Trump wishes for Iran to quickly collapse, but there are no signs of this happening. If the war prolongs, high oil prices will be a significant burden on Trump's re-election bid. For the U.S. to push this war to its conclusion, it would likely need to dispatch ground troops to occupy key straits, which is not an easy or quick undertaking. Currently, Trump and Netanyahu are regarded as the two most dangerous figures on the planet.
*Source: YouTube: Middle East Eye (2026-03-11)*
